Will you win or lose post-election?
Headlines are heavily focused on making predictions about election outcomes. Be it polls about who will win in each state or which policy change will be executed under the new leaders, we can’t seem to avoid political fortune tellers. Even the betting sites have heated up red and blue supporters like a football game tailgate rallies the fans.
As foresight professionals, we are not trained to predict outcomes; rather, we seek to identify and understand the patterns of uncertainty to help our clients prepare for a variety of potential outcomes.
Our Experts in Residence (ExR) recently convened to discuss election implications across several policy areas. The discussion explored the extremes, identified key questions, and assessed the potential impact that various election outcomes might have on Federal Agencies and critical infrastructure sectors. The group examined issues ranging from how resurgent U.S. isolationist policies would affect foreign relations and humanitarian missions, to how R&D investment may alter the innovation landscape.
ExR Discussion Highlights
“The U.S. economy is a massive machine with the Federal Reserve as its control panel. If the new operators receive radically different instructions post-2024, the traditional beacon of stability could shift more in the political winds.”
“Even though there seems to be bipartisan consensus on the value of small and medium-sized businesses, they are most vulnerable to a rollercoaster ride depending on who is at the controls.”
“Experts across the political spectrum agree that the U.S. immigration system is fundamentally broken. However, ideas for solutions diverge dramatically. A Democratic victory could lead to a ‘compassionate redesign’ that emphasizes integration but doesn’t address volume. A Republican win could result in a fortress-like approach prioritizing security and ‘quality.’ Either way, each policy direction could reshape the American demographic landscape for generations.”
“In Eastern Europe, the administration’s stance on Ukraine and NATO could either strengthen the alliances eastern flank or leave it exposed. In the Taiwan Strait, uncertainty around China’s assertiveness in the region creates the risk of nuclear escalation. Meanwhile, Isreal’s proxy—and direct—challenges to Iran threaten to upset the delicate balance of power.”
“Cybersecurity will likely be a winner under both administrations.”
As a CEO who serves both federal and commercial clients, I feel it is important to share some of these extreme “futures postulates” in the form of questions that you can use to prompt discussions with your teams. The intent of the futures postulates is to provoke a discussion with multiple perspectives. This is the season for organizations to assess 2025 and beyond as you develop your organizations’ strategic plans. Consider this a helpful planning exercise.
Exercise guidance: Examine each question with a mindset that seeks to understand rather than challenge. (Remember, this is about getting ready, not getting it “right”!) Bring a broad group of leadership together (e.g., acquisition, programs, supply chain management, legal, finance, operations, marketing, sales); make every effort to welcome diverse perspectives, and don’t be afraid to include some junior, high potential employees in the mix. Ask the group the following questions:
- How would we be impacted (customers, constituents, employees, suppliers, partners, supply chain, etc.)?
- What risks and opportunities are present in each futures postulates?
- What are our response actions to capitalize on opportunities or mitigate risks?
As you work through each futures postulate, you will likely see some common responses emerge – what we at Toffler Associates like to call “No-Regret Actions” (or “NRAs”). These NRAs are really the purpose of the exercise – what are those things that will be relevant in the future, no matter who wins the election. An intangible outcome of the exercise is a leadership team with a common understanding of how it will address future uncertainty.
Futures Postulates to Explore – Enjoy the debate and journey.
- The United States engages in direct conflict with a competitor (e.g., over Taiwan). How will that impact R&D budgets across the Federal government? How does federally funded R&D affect your organization operations?
- Federal troops are engaged in border enforcement activities and a Merit-Based Immigration system is implemented. How does immigration affect your workforce or your suppliers/partners workforce? How will this affect GDP growth rate and innovation?
- The Federal Bank is no longer independent. How is access to capital and investment in innovation and growth affected? Does a weaker dollar serve to benefit or harm you in the long run? What are the downstream impacts?
- “Universal Basic Income” is implemented via Fed Accounts. The Fed creates individual accounts for all American citizens. How does this impact your organization’s cost to operate? How might employment contracts and benefits change? What are the positive societal implications?
- The United States seeks a policy of ‘Energy Protectionism’ to establish it not as a simply a net exporter of petroleum, but to import NO energy. What are the impacts for your business? For your stakeholders? (Frankly, in our discussions we explored a range of issues that one could replace with “energy,” such as microchips, rare earth metals, or even data. Imagine a world in which the United States and other countries seek to live in autarky.)
We have found there are common attributes to resilient strategies and operations that help organizations be successful in a variety of future states, these include:
- Focus on adaptability: Design flexible systems and processes that can quickly pivot in response to unexpected changes.
- Develop modular strategies: Create plans with interchangeable components that can be adjusted based on different scenarios.
- Prioritize risk management: Identify key risks across all scenarios and develop mitigation strategies for each; these can inform the “no regrets actions.”
- Foster a culture of continuous learning: Encourage ongoing monitoring of trends and regular strategy reviews to adjust skills, knowledge, and capabilities needed in a new environment.
- Build robust communication channels: Ensure clear lines of communication to quickly disseminate information and coordinate responses.
- Invest in technology and data analytics: Use these tools to improve forecasting and decision-making capabilities.
When facilitated in an environment with trust and openness, these discussions stimulate emotions and critical thinking with most leadership teams. I’d love to hear how it goes with your team. Alternatively, if you’d like to talk about how we can customize Flash FuturesSM Scenarios with greater fidelity and relevance to your organization or sector, please contact us at https://tofflerassociates.com/contact/.